April 29th
Well I guess I had it all wrong. I thought this country had some serious problems that have metastasized across the country these past ten years. Homeless encampments, drug addiction, food poverty, inflation, housing shortages … , but based on the results it looks like the ruling class is content to keep things as they are. Told you I would be bitter.
Obviously, much to glean from last night’s results that in the end have brought us back full circle to where we were in 2021. One big change is whether the NDP with a new leader will even survive. Funny how an election that was supposed to be about defending and distancing ourselves from the United States, the end of our three party system makes us more like them.
As predicted, but still shocking is that the Conservatives did much better in this election than the last two and even when they won in 2011 in terms of seats and vote count. Yet they are still on the outside looking in. Another surprising development is it looks like Pierre Poilievre has lost his seat that he’s held for over twenty years in an election in which he ran for Prime Minister. His riding was targeted by election reform activists who had put a gazillion names on the ballot. Have to look at that more closely when all the dust settles.
The Trump effect certainly impacted this election, but it does look like the Conservative lead was soft as it evaporated as soon as Carney was appointed.
Have to go back in look, but not sure the Tories would ever have won an election without the left splitting the vote. Unless the NDP resurfaces, it may never again.
Another what if factor would be the impact if Trump didn’t antagonize the world and governed competently, perhaps it would have made more Canadians want change like Americans did.
Now will see if Trump plays nice or digs in even deeper. This result could make it easier for Trump to make the case to Americans who are actually sympathetic to Canada if we now get adversarial it could become popular in the States for Trump to go at us.
Sorry to hear of the senseless incident in Vancouver over the weekend. Hope we never become numb to these acts and they cause communities to become closer. Certainly has cast a pall over the last few days of the election campaign.
Hard for me to get any definitive read on today’s outcome. The only scenario I don’t see happening is a conservative majority. There is such a fine line in Canada’s electoral regional seat distribution, that it does seem like all other outcomes are still possible. Believe Conservatives will do better than polls have shown, but that may only mean a Liberal minority. The Trump factor has been used to maximum effect by the Liberals, but it is hard for me to gauge whether this will translate into a Liberal majority. I don’t get the sense that the two major parties are taking anything for granted so it should be an interesting finish. I will be interested in seeing the total vote count and percentages compared to previous elections to see if the roller coaster of the last four years has changed anything between the aggregate left and right total for the two sides.
I will say since being down in the U.S. and not surprisingly to me, Americans have been as nice as ever. But I do get a sense of embarrassment for those who care about a country's international reputation.
April 25th
I love Donald Trump, I love Donald Trump, I love Donald Trump.
Now that I have gone through customs ...
I can report it looks like business as usual for people heading to the States. Didn't witness many border hassles either.
Some last thoughts on the election. Political ads have been getting some attention in the media with the Conservatives running their golf ad targeting boomers and former PM Harper offering his endorsement. What their ads have missed, or least I haven’t seen, is Pierre Poilievre speaking directly to the camera and stating his case to Canadians. Carney has done that and it makes for a more statesmen like feel in my opinion.
I have misgivings about the way Liberals govern, but they sure know how to campaign.
Signing off for the weekend with a Go Leafs Go - 13 more to go!
April 24th
Sorry for the late post, but I was packing and checking my socials for anti - Trump rhetoric. A few people have called me a Trump apologist so not sure if I should be worried. I get the criticism, but don’t agree with it. It does come from trying to explain the motives of people on both sides of the political divide. Since most of my social circle and media I consume are Liberal, I like to provide some rationale and push back to the mainstream narrative.
Case in point, look how the Liberal government and media has gone from trying to cancel Canada with flags at half mast and numerous op-eds denouncing Canada’s colonial past. Now with Trump calling us the 51st state, the flag waving is back in vogue and Liberals are now displaying the flag everywhere. It wasn't long ago that it was the truckers who made liberals feel unease with the flag being waived. Guess the virtue signalling of national shame had a short shelf life. You can't help but marvel at how quickly people concerned about appearances can change their values like the wind.
April 23rd
Go Leafs Go! Only 14 more to go!
Okay back to reality. So where I left out was commenting about why Harvard, or any any public academic institution for that matter, should receive tax dollars without any strings is beyond me. It reminds me of CEO’s complaining about having to answer to those annoying shareholders. You don’t like it - go private. I would agree the demands of the Trump administration are over the top - but unlawful? I don’t know how a court can restrict a duly elected government from acting on its mandate to reduce government spending. The only case they may have is that the spending was already approved - but we’re talking improper execution of restricting funds, not that the government doesn’t have the right. Had a professor reply to me saying he’s worried about the same thing happening in Canada. Again, that would be up to the people - it must never be forgotten that it is their money. The issue can swing both ways politically. I know many Ontario progressives who are rightfully upset that our province continues to fund Catholic education while some Catholic School board officials are anything but inclusive.
Simply put, if you're worried about your pet project getting cut because it is out of touch with the needs of the masses, then you better start shaking your own tin cup.
No matter who wins the election on April 28th, both Carney and Poilievre should be celebrated by their parties. Carney has resurrected the Liberal brand among boomers and the faculty lounge. Pierre’s popularity has caused the entire left wing of the country to merge into one voting mass - it is really quite something. The guy who should be run out on a rail by the NDP is Singh. He kept the unholy alliance with Liberals going for far too long, hitching his wagon to Trudeau who had become toxic. Now the support for his party is vanishing even with the Liberals moving back to the right. Singh may have destroyed his own party - permanently.
Who said Canadian politics was boring?
April 22nd
Sad to hear yesterday of the passing of Pope Francis. The fact that his death has received an outpouring of condolences and world attention speaks to his connection to the people. This is quite something given the influence of the institution he represents is diminishing.
His death was quite shocking as he was just seen greeting the crowd during Easter Sunday and receiving guests. It does seem that some people are blessed to be able to rally before their passing to fulfill some duty or see someone. Due to my own advancing years I have been interested in what impacts longevity. Obviously, the standard diet and exercise are key, but finding more and more that continuing to have purpose and feeling needed later in life is essential.
The other less philosophical observation from last week was the defunding announcement of Harvard by the Trump administration. I was surprised that a private university that charges exorbitant fees and receives significant support from their impressive alumni is on the public dole. Pretty simple solution for Harvard, if it wants to keep its independence from government influence then don’t take government money.
Flesh this topic out a little more tomorrow.
April 21st
Happy Easter Holiday Monday to those who get the day off. Before working in the private sector I thought everyone had a four day weekend around Easter. Nope, just bankers, government - non-healthcare workers, and teachers. Doubt there will be many conservatives reading since they are the ones working today. Sorry, I can’t help myself, but I did get what I wanted to say off my chest this weekend about next week’s election. Also, seeing that so many people have voted already there doesn’t seem much point in continuing to state my case. Sense a little swing of the pendulum for the Conservatives post debate, but Trump is doing no favours to anyone on the right. Sad part is that people who understand political ideologies know Trump is a populist and isn’t that conservative. But for most people you are your party label, so unless Trump turns things around he will prove to be a cautionary tale told by progressives for years to come.
Last week I commented on the buy Canadian trend as people look to buy Canadian lettuce of all things. One area I would love to consume more Canadian content is in the news media. Wrote last summer how sad it was that all the Canadian news wanted to talk about was the American election. It would be nice if once our election is over the Canadian news media followed the trend and told more stories about what is going on up here. Canadian media shouldn’t need a tax subsidy to read the room.
Pleased to see that the NHL playoffs finally started and that the Leafs, looked very un Leaf like scoring and winning to start a series. I have them making it to the semis this year, so hoping last night was a sign of a deeper run than the usual.
April 18th
On this Good Friday of reflection, may God bless you and yours.
April 17th
Continuing the discussion from yesterday about the current wave of anti-American sentiment, I believe it is also being stirred up because we’re in an election. Once it ends, I believe that will be another reason things will simmer down.
Going to have to write a full column on the Canadian election this weekend. Wrote quite a bit leading up to the U.S. fall election cause I felt I had a good read on what Americans were thinking from listening to friends and family. I knew many Americans weren’t happy with either choice they were given. Here in Canada, I must admit I have been shocked by what the polls are saying, but the consolidation of the vote on the left has made this election a binary choice just like the States. The consequence may be a party staying in power for 15 straight years! This is remarkable since this government has been so unpopular for long stretches. I’ve heard nothing but complaints - even from Liberals, about the poor state of the country since the last election. I can understand why some Canadians don’t want to give the Conservatives a majority to start, but keeping many of the same people in charge and expecting things to improve is the definition of political insanity to me. I will try not to go on full sulk mode in this space if the Conservatives lose, but I promise nothing.
I will be in the States on election date, a place where some are saying they will never go again. I wonder if these people feel the same way about China. I’m fine with people trying to make a point, but a little perspective is necessary. Turning our backs from the U.S. because the current democratically elected leader is scary, to wanting to build closer ties with a communist regime in China - doesn’t make any sense to me. But neither does Queers for Palestine.
Americans have no problem changing their government and will do so again. Will Canada ever do the same?
April 16th
Congrats to the Maple Leafs for winning the Atlantic Division last night. Us Leafs fans have to celebrate the accomplishments when they happen, because they don’t come around that often. The Leafs won in Buffalo last night and as always there were plenty of Leafs fans in attendance. Which was perhaps a little surprising based on all the self imposed U.S. travel ban talk that is out there in Canadian media.
Yes, anti-American sentiment is at an all time high right now, and justifiably so based on all the 51st State talk from Trump. But I don’t believe it will last. It feels a lot like the first few months of Covid, when everyone was chipping in to support one another during a crisis. Then as the pandemic dragged on, fractures emerged in the “we’re all in this together” mantra. I expect with time people will buy American products and travel to the U.S. as they always have. Our relationship with the States is too interconnected and goes too deep for this temporary separation to become a divorce. Even Trump haters will eventually make their way back after rationalizing some improvement in policy is good enough for them to get a winter tan. Right now it’s fashionable to spurn the U.S., but virtue signalling only lasts so long, before a new cause arrives. Just look at those Palestinian protests that were all the rage, not so long ago. Now, even with an election happening to bring attention to the issue, the flags and the media coverage is nowhere to be found. Why I said at the time, that those protests were anything but.
April 15th
Another holdover from the past weekend was hearing what comedian Bill Maher had to say on his show about his recent visit to the White House to meet with President Trump. Maher has been a vocal critic of Trump, so wanted to hear his thoughts on the meeting. The key observation made by Maher was how different the private Trump was in comparison to the one he sees on television. I wasn’t surprised by this, but was surprised that Maher was. Our politics now is theatre. Some are better at it than others, but I am under no illusions anymore that what I see from a candidate when the cameras are rolling is authentic. The fact that Trump is a nice guy in person, I find off putting because it makes me even more cynical of the facade of media personality.
Now that the weather is getting warmer, I noticed that the candidates are getting out to knock on doors. Quick tip to you partisans out there if you want to help your candidate. When the candidate you support comes to your door, tell them they have your vote and to go knock on another door. When the candidate comes who you would never vote for, pretend that you’re an undecided voter and ask for their view for every issue under the sun. If they’re smart they won’t stay too long, but politicians like to talk and sell, so many will stay longer than they should and will miss getting to knock on more doors. It’s an old political trick, that canvassers should be able to sniff out if properly trained.
Tomorrow discuss the current pro Canada - anti America fad going on right now and why it won’t last.
April 14th
Hope everyone had a nice weekend and enjoyed some great spring weather. Was nice to read and fill up my head instead of emptying it. Also enjoyed watching a very enjoyable Masters golf tourney between yard work.
Contemplated some topics from last week a little more and thought about why some people have more confidence in crowd sizes at political events than polls. Must admit I am getting to the point where I am not sure I believe much of what is shared on the internet. I still have confidence in trusted news sources, but I am leery of bias. In an AI world of misinformation perhaps people have more faith in what they can see with their own eyes than what they see or hear on their screens.
Barring a major surprise in the Canadian election, it does look like the Liberals are going to win for a fourth consecutive time. I was holding out hope that the debate this Thursday would be an opportunity for Carney and Poilievre to go at it, but since the powers that be allow so many fringe party leaders on stage, there is little opportunity for any leader to gain much traction from the exercise. Which is a shame for voters in such an important election.
April 11th
Some random thoughts to end the week.
A conservative saying is that a liberal never saw a tax they didn’t like. Well it looks like they don’t like tariffs, which are essentially a tax that importers pay (then passed on to consumers who choose to still buy a foreign good). I can understand conservatives not wanting to increase taxes, but I thought Democrats would be more supportive. Many are arguing right now that the Trump cuts should not be extended, so why be against more revenue from tariffs. It is true that tariffs, like any consumption tax, are regressive in nature. Lower income individuals pay the same amount of tax on a purchase as a higher income person, but the tax represents a higher percentage of total income for the lower earner. But if there are cheaper domestic options available, people can avoid the tax altogether. Guess opposing the President no matter what, trumps ideology.
When I was a kid I would hop on my bike and go and count lawn signs to predict who would win an election. So much has changed since back then, but the go to public sign must still be as effective as ever with the plethora of them on every corner. Surprised the Greens play along with this waste and don’t practice what they preach.
Will torture myself again this weekend and watch the Masters. Golf isn’t the problem - it’s the weather. Seeing short sleeve golfers playing in the beautiful sunshine on pristine courses is quite the contrast to what I see out my window. Warm days are coming, so I've been told.
Wonder how the financial world is enjoying being tied to a Trump string for a second time. Canadians and Mexicans have seen this movie before. He comes in with bluster and outrageous demands to get you to the bargaining table so you can cut a deal similar to the last one you made. Trump then claims credit to his base that he negotiated a far better, fairer, fantastic deal than the last. Hope you bought on the dip. Or at least didn’t sell. If you missed out, I wouldn’t worry. There will be another opportunity around the corner.
Hopefully, this does settle things down so the rest of the world can get back to fixing their own problems. We Canadians get our chance to set a new direction on April 28th. Pierre is getting giant crowds at his campaign stops, but Carney continues to lead in the polls. I don’t believe the polls are necessarily wrong, but I would say that I believe there are a lot more motivated Conservative voters than the Liberals. I believe the Liberals have the greater numbers, but it will be interesting to see if they go out and vote. I would expect the Liberals to make a huge GOTV (get out the vote) push as election day nears. Also expect partners in the media to also get on board reminding everyone to vote as well.
One party that is not getting much support right now is the NDP. I am surprised that this left leaning party has not made more of an issue of the war in Palestine. It wasn’t long ago students were camping out on campuses across the country protesting the war and supporting Palestine. The fact that Singh hasn’t tapped into the issue I believe is a missed opportunity. It is also an issue that divides populist Liberals who have elected members who have very different views on that conflict. The NDP should be making support for Palestine a campaign wedge issue within liberal voters. In doing so they can also grab hold of those motivated students who I bet are looking for a party that reflects their views on what has happened in Gaza.
It’s spring right? Have started the last two days with some sports conversation as a diversion from all that is politics. But even now sports and politics can get intertwined - just ask Wayne Gretzky. I don’t know why fans get upset or angry at athletes if their political views don’t gel with their own. It would probably be best for celebs to remain neutral and let everyone attach their own views to them, but even remaining vanilla can get you in trouble for not speaking up enough. Personally, I don’t care what Gretzky’s views are or what the players on my fav teams are really like. I watch them to be entertained. I don’t hang out with them or know them personally to care if they're a real jerk. If I call them out, it will be on how they played. It would be like me commenting here on who is the better hockey player, Poilievre or Carney. Now when it comes to the economy…
Yesterday, I said I would offer my two cents on why Americans care so much more about the economy compared to Canadians. I believe it comes down to one rather simplistic measure. Look at how many people in each country work for the government. My crack research team here, did a google search and the U.S. has roughly 14% working in the public sector compared to 21% in Canada. It is not a huge difference, but either is the number of votes that determines who wins power in both countries. So what does this mean? Think about it, if you work for the government, you usually have much greater job security than those in the private sector. If the economy goes up or down, those in government tend to keep their jobs. Layoffs from a lack of work due to a downturn are much more front of mind for those in the private sector. So it stands to reason that for a country that has less government workers, they are going to care about the economy a lot more than any other issue. When you’re not as concerned about losing your job, you can afford to concern yourself more with existential threats or social causes and vote accordingly. It relates to the Maslow column I wrote previously, where I argued that no one cares about progressive causes until the kitchen table issues are addressed. It also makes it easier to understand why liberals expand the size of government and conservatives reduce it - they’re both looking to add more voters to their side.
Cool start to spring has made me buck the Pro-Canada trend and switch my weather app from celsius to fahrenheit to fool myself into thinking it's warmer out.
Sports are always a nice escape from crazy times in the real world, so I wanted to finish some thoughts from yesterday. The men’s basketball team at Duke is starting to resemble an NBA prep school more than a college basketball program. Hard to build much continuity in a one and done world of elite college programs. The Blue Jays signing of Vlad Jr. to a $500 million deal, was an interesting start to the day yesterday as people watched their own money in the market evaporate. I don’t believe that contract will age well, but I don’t believe it was done to win games as much as to make money for Rogers by signing a fan favourite. Always said in Toronto - good, is good enough. It also doesn’t hurt that Vlad was born in Canada during these polarizing times.
Back to crazy and it does seem that Trump is following his pattern of causing chaos as a negotiating strategy. All this may do is get the States back to where it was before the Trade war, but it’s a safe bet who will be loudest in taking credit for the rebound. Yesterday opined that Trump has to get the economy on track because it is the only thing where Americans will hold him accountable.
One of the differences this dual citizen has noticed between Canada and the United States, is how much more the economy matters to Americans and how Canadians are much more tolerant of economic pain. The fact that Liberals in Canada are leading in the current polls says a lot about the different priorities of each country’s citizens. Tomorrow will discuss a key factor that I believe explains why that is the case.
Hope everyone had a good weekend. In matters of distraction my beloved Duke Blue Devils were incredibly successful at stealing defeat from the jaws of victory and Alex Ovechkin scored another big PR win for the NHL becoming that league’s all-time scorer. As for the Blue Jays, don’t worry fellow fans, Vlad Jr will start hitting as soon as they are out of it. Give it another month.
Speaking of giving it a month. Weekend also gave some time to reflect on Trump’s cratering of the stock market with his trade war with the world. If this doesn’t resolve itself before the real warmth arrives next month then this will be a summer of discontent. It will also give the left what it needs to get its footing and retake the American psyche. It’s the economy stupid, as the famous U.S. political strategist Carville put it, and it underscores the only hope Democrats have is Trump screwing that up.
It certainly hasn’t worked for the Democrats trying to pin all the other stuff on him during the campaign. Even Trump’s moves at the start weren’t penetrating his fortress of support. Of course federal workers are going to protest being thrown out of work, but no one else is going to care unless those job cuts impact them. Fear mongering about cuts to cherished entitlements hasn't worked because they haven’t happened - yet?
Fighting the culture wars continue to be a lost cause for Democrats. As for the deportations, frankly I don’t believe a person on a visa or an illegal border crosser should be able to spit on the sidewalk, without getting tossed. Due process should be guaranteed to citizens, not guests and certainly not the uninvited. I am heading to the States later this month for work, and I can assure I won’t be joining in any rallies for Hamas or Tesla protests while there. I will ask Americans how things are going? I know for the ones with red hats, it will be the state of the economy that will matter to them.
April 4th
One of the issues in this campaign is the Conservatives promise to cut the english version of the CBC and other government media subsidies. While I believe in the value of a public broadcaster, the CBC based on tumbling ratings, has lost its way. Just like Canada Post, it will be up to Canadians to determine how long they want to subsidise something that is no longer seen as relevant or essential.
My bigger concern has not been the CBC funding issue, but the media subsidies. Once the Liberals gave tax subsidies to support news organizations they opened a can of worms that comes with the accusation of media bias. Whether or not that charge is accurate is not the issue, if the perception of bias is there, then according to the saying, perception is reality.
It is also not a good look, when taxpayer money is funnelled either directly or indirectly to large media companies like Rogers and Bell. Could go on, about the damage being done to democracy when trust in news erodes, but that would take more than a minute.
In my recent free trade column I prophesied that one possible end justifies the means explanation for all this would be for Trump to bring enough chaos through hyper retaliatory tariffs, that he brings protectionist countries to their knees. Which could ultimately end in establishing what has been elusive for globalists. A free trade world.
I believe a protectionist shift has occurred because the free trade deal was cheaper labour costs and access to more markets for business in exchange for cheaper products for consumers. After the wave of inflation we just experienced - that agreement has been broken.
What will take up much of the talk now in Canada is our response to this trade war. My advice to Canadian leaders would be to wait and let this hot air mass blow over. Of course that is easier said than done during an election.
Back in the 2015 election I voted Liberal because I thought the Harper government had run its course and that a change was necessary for the betterment of the country. I don’t regret voting that way because I believe governments, like food, have best before dates. Some go bad quicker than others, but I do believe the States have it right with an 8 year max. Hopefully, that is not another thing Trump screws with.
The Liberals have been in party for 10 years now and they’re done. I would argue they were done last election, but here we are. A new leader is not enough of a change for me. Too many of the same cast of characters remain. The arrogance and contempt for the electorate has been on display for a while now. I don’t want to imagine how smug they will be if they win power again.
If Canadians truly want good government then you can’t endorse this one again. It would be one thing if they were running on their record, but this party is campaigning against it. Harper didn’t do that.
I don’t have all the confidence in the world in the Conservatives and their depth of talent, but they deserve a shot to clean house and chart a new course. In a short time, the country will be at the polls again to hold them accountable. In a thriving democracy, nothing should be permanent.
It would be interesting to know how well Carney and the liberals would be doing if Trump wasn’t dominating the election campaign narrative. Right now it’s hard to say how much of the liberals bounce has come from the reaction to Trump or Trudeau resigning. I never bought Poilievre as Canada's Trump talk, but I do know his support was soft among centre right liberals who were done with Trudeau. Liberals deserve credit for recognizing this and promoting Carney’s banking credentials and policy movement to the right. The Conservatives should counter by reminding everyone that Carney was Trudeau’s handpick successor to carry his torch. Attack ads should have already changed linking Carney to the carbon tax, to something much more toxic - Justin Trudeau. Carney's decision to not fire Paul Chiang, the Toronto-area Liberal candidate who made light of the fact his Conservative opponent has a bounty placed on his head by Hong Kong’s Beijing-controlled authorities, gives the impression that the new boss, is much like the old boss.
I know I have leaned right in these election posts and I hope I haven’t turned off my liberal readers. I chose the colour purple here for a reason, (red - blue mix, not the PPC) so I will try to be more persuasive later this week in making the case that one of the biggest reasons we need a change this election is the same as it was in 2015.
Happy April Fools Day or Kill the Carbon Tax Day everyone. Last year at this time I wrote how the Liberals were taking Canadians for fools by continuing to hike the carbon tax. Glad Carney got the memo and finally killed this inequitable tax. I will thank Pierre Poilievre today for making life more affordable as he is the one who made the case that fighting climate on the backs of the poor was a terrible idea. Still not convinced, Carney won’t reverse course again if he wins this election.
Speaking of the election, even with all the talk of Canada independence, we have still let Trump and the States have too much influence on us. Former NDP leader mused that this election is now a binary choice between the Left and the Right. What's next - getting the Conservatives and Liberals to change colours?
I have always believed that our democratic system delivers superior choice to the voter than the States. Currently, we have a far left party in the NDP, Left Liberals, Right Conservatives, Far Right PPC and the Greens. Not only is this choice good for voters, but I believe it makes the mainstream parties prioritize the middle of the electorate - not the extremes like in the States. So for the good of the country and good government, I hope progressives don’t screw this up and cannibalize themselves for power.
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