Canada's Election Post Mortem

 

Well I guess I had it all wrong. I thought this country had some serious problems that have metastasized across the country these past ten years. Homeless encampments, drug addiction, food poverty, inflation, housing shortages … , but based on the results it looks like the ruling class is content to keep things as they are. Yes, I am just a little bitter from this result.

Obviously, much to glean from Monday’s results that in the end have brought us back full circle to where we were in 2021. One big change is whether the NDP with a new leader will even survive. Funny how an election that was supposed to be about defending and distancing ourselves from the United States, we now have morphed into an American binary political choice. If this holds, the ramifications of this to Canada’s political future are profound.

Just look at Monday's results. It is quite shocking that even though they lost, the Conservatives did much better in this election than the last two and even when they won in 2011 in terms of seats and vote count. Yet they are still on the outside looking in. Another surprising development is that Pierre Poilievre lost his seat that he’s held for over twenty years in an election in which he ran for Prime Minister. His riding was targeted by election reform activists who had put a gazillion names on the ballot. Again, all these candidates and their supporters followed the NDP lead in playing dead to benefit the Liberals. Pierre will now head out west to run in a by-election as one of his loyal MP’s has stepped down so he can be back in parliament to continue his role as leader of the opposition. Say what you want about Poilievre, even Liberals acknowledge he is a very effective in this role. The question for Conservatives becomes whether he will ever be likeable enough to be elected leader. It looks like the Conservatives will stick with him rather than trying another new face. The bigger question is in a socialist country that adopts a two party system, does it even matter?

The Trump effect certainly impacted this election, in causing the left to galvanize around Carney. The conservative shift that has occurred across the world may have ended with Trump’s election. Perhaps if he didn’t antagonize the world and governed competently from the start of his second term, Canada would still have the NDP and the Conservatives would have won easily. It is ironic, in an election that was supposed to be all about Canada’s future, it was what was happening in the States that impacted us the most.

Still the Conservatives can’t blame everything on Trump. They ran a bad campaign. Pierre never did that ad that had him look directly into the camera to dispel the negative image that his enemies had created. The press wasn’t invited to the campaign and there wasn’t a lot of party discipline from team blue. Doug Ford and others were constantly second guessing the approach. Compare that to the Liberals, who you would have thought after cancelling the carbon tax would have had more push back from within. I lamented this was due to a lack of principles, but Libs were a lot more disciplined and ran a much better campaign.

As for what happens now. Again it all will depend on what happens down south. Will see if Trump plays nice or digs in even deeper. Already the tariff uncertainty caused by his flip flopping is having its desired effect with Mercedes expanding there among others. Unless a dependable free trade environment is reestablished - there is not a sound business case for any international manufacturing business to expand in Canada. Our existing businesses may stay, but the recent announcement by GM to cut production is very concerning. How Canada reacts is going to be very important. If we go on the attack, it could backfire. In just returning from the States, I can say that Americans still like us, but if we get all reciprocal, it could become popular for Trump to go at us more, rather than withdraw and claim victory.

The dire consequences for Canada going forward are profound. We’re not as united as we should be during this moment of crisis. The biggest job for Carney right now is keeping Canada whole. If he governs like Trudeau you can bet that Alberta will have that referendum. Whether they stay could depend if Trump plays a role in sweetening the pot to tip the scales in America’s favour.

I am wish casting that this 51st state talk will blow over and we will negotiate our trade deal again with the Americans and things will return to some normalcy. It will be interesting if a new deal help’s Carney’s business interests more than Canada’s. Either way I am sure both Trump and Carney will spin it in their favour. Carney will claim victory and may even try to go back to the polls early to get a majority before the NDP can reclaim its footing.

This more than plausible scenario would put the Liberals in power for decades. How that plays out will be up to Carney. I do believe he is a significant upgrade from Trudeau so we shouldn't expect the next four years to necessarily be more of the same.

But with talk of more government bailouts to protect our battered industries we are on a more socialist, big government, Chinada trajectory than our American cousins. How you feel about that should impact your vote in the next election. Unless something happens in the States of course.

By Gregory Cawsey