Today's Just A Minute Thought

 

May 16th 

As another week draws to a close, so do the prospects of the Toronto Maple Leafs advancing in this year’s playoffs. A dismal performance last game has put them on the brink of elimination and has raised the ire of fans once again.  I am not sure why Leaf fans still react to this current group’s perennial failure. There are no surprises with this group - after they year after year of early playoff exits this core - doesn’t have IT. They’re the only constant for an organization that has changed everything else to try and win at this time of year. The reason the core 4 of Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares have been kept together is they’re a lock to get into the playoffs.  For team owners this is everything because all the money that comes in from tickets and concessions during a playoff  game is gravy for a team because all the team salaries have been paid out during the regular season. I have heard estimates of the Leafs raking in well north of 7 million per playoff game.  Blowing the team up, might get them more playoff success, but it also could blow up their lock of making the playoffs and losing out on at least a few home gates. It is why ownership keeps running back this same group.  If the Leafs get bounced again tonight, however, it might just cause enough frustration from fans and ownership to risk finally dealing with the elephant in the dressing room. 

Now that the pressure is off the Leafs and people have already written them off, they will probably play a great game and pull off a victory - only to lose another pressure filled Game 7 Sunday. Only winning would surprise me with this team - I have seen all the ways to lose. 

... and on that positive note - have a nice long weekend everyone!! 

May 15th 

Skipped over the big news in Ontario yesterday with Honda announcing they are postponing their EV battery plant expansion. Many pundits said this was due to the uncertainty of tariffs, but more impactful has been lacklustre electric vehicle demand.
 
While I am glad the government is not out of pocket for all the promised tax credits and support for building the plant, it does show how out of touch the federal and provincial governments are with the market.  I am not a fan of activist governments subsidizing an industry. I would rather let the invisible hand of the market work its magic than give money to people to buy and build EV’s. If people feel a government must do something to expedite the transition from gas to electric powered vehicles, it would be better to subsidize R&D of the batteries themselves.  Once the batteries can be charged quickly, last long and produced at low cost no one will have to be bribed to buy an EV.   As the old saying goes "build a better mousetrap and the world will beat a path to your door".  If governments want to do something they should be creating the conditions for groundbreaking innovation to take place on their soil and leave it to consumers to pick the winners and losers in the market.

May 14th 

To be clear, I am not suggesting that there has not been a reduction in Canadians travelling to the U.S., but I don’t believe the impact is anywhere close to what the media reports are suggesting. In fact, if it wasn’t for the media chatter I am not sure anyone would notice. Still plenty of Jays and Leafs fans are travelling to watch their teams. The recent Seattle pilgrimage by Jays fans from out west still happened with reports suggesting half the stadium was filled with out of country travellers. If this is an American boycott, many Canadians apparently did not get the memo. I asked Disney employees working the gate at Orlando if they had noticed a downturn in attendance or absence of Canadians - “hadn’t noticed” was the response.  It reminds me of when I was staying in Niagara Falls in a hotel during the Covid pandemic when society opened up during a break in the case count. After watching a news media report on how many people were still scared to go out socially and the threat that still remained, I felt concerned about being away from home. I then headed downstairs for dinner to a very crowded lobby and heard the hotel and others in the area were packed for the weekend. That story didn’t make the news. 

I have been an avid consumer of news media for decades. Whether it be from watching a nightly newscast or getting the daily paper to now streaming digital subscriptions - I will follow. But I haven’t been the only one that has taken note that the news agenda is more noticeable than ever now. What I find ironic is that the harder mainstream media pushes to build consensus and fight against alternative sources of information or misinformation the more divided we become. News media now must chase clicks and cater to “their” audience in a fight for survival. The biased news agenda that has evolved from this market pressure is melting trust faster than the ice cap.

To regain the high ground News needs to get back to black and white and lose the colour. You can find a just cause anywhere, but what we really need now are just the facts.  

May 13th

Continuing down the hypothetical rabbit hole of the States and Canada each trading their traitors. It would be great if Trump could see that so many more Americans would  want to move north than the number of Canadians that wanted to head south. Of course, Trump would point out that America has a much higher population so of course it would be in a citizen trade deficit. Perhaps this fictitious simple example could be used to explain to Trump why he is in a real trade deficit with his northern neighbour. 

Expect the trade thaw between the U.S. and major countries around the world to continue. As I wrote last month, Trump liked the optics of redoing the NAFTA deal in his first term, so he is following the same script, but this time with the rest of the world. Scream a deal is unfair, put in crazy tariffs and then claim victory in reaching a new deal that is much like the old one.  So expect Japan, South Korea and others to announce similar deals following Britain and now China. Just don’t expect Canada’s to come quickly. I do believe that Trump wants to stick it to us as best he can without hurting the American economy.  So we will be left waiting and hurting. Talked to managers at a local manufacturing plant the other day, who said business is not good as orders are starting to dry up as customers play wait and see. Few hate uncertainty as much as business owners.  

Strange, that I am not hearing about this economic doom and gloom in Canada as much as I read about how we’re apparently not travelling to the States as much. It does seem like that this is another disconnect between what I see and hear on the ground as opposed to what the news media is telling me. Pull on that thread tomorrow.  

May 12th

Just as I was wondering if Lucy would actually hold onto the football this year, the Leafs are back to making life hard for themselves after back to back losses in the playoff series this weekend. Winner of pivotal  Game 5 should tell us who will take the series - unless the Leafs win. 

Finishing last week’s topic on the comparison of U.S. and Canadian healthcare there are obvious pros and cons to each system, much as it is for both countries overall. After the recent elections there does seem to be loud factions in both countries that want to leave the U.S. to head to Canada and vice versa. Perhaps that can be another thing that can be negotiated in the trade talks. Trading of each country's malcontents. I mean who needs people who don’t want to live as citizens in the country of their birth. Be a win win for both countries to ease their exodus.  

May 9th

Turning from the international to the provincial.  The many news feeds in Ontario have been preoccupied with the increase in measles cases. During the pandemic talk of vaccines became a wedge issue as the news media threw chum in the water to draw people into the debate.  For a time, in the early stages of the covid vaccine rollout it made sense to consider mandates because we thought the vaccine would stop infection and transmission. I still remember showing my vaccine status to get in a restaurant. Once we learned it only lessened symptoms the mandate talk slowly began to die down and entry requirements were removed. Some people still wanted the mandates however, because they argued that the unvaccinated were the ones filling up hospital beds and placing the burden on a stretched healthcare system. I remember arguing at the time that it was a slippery slope to mandate behaviour to protect a universal healthcare system. If people are heavy drinkers or smokers should they be disallowed from entering public spaces? 

Now with measles cases up - there is talk  again of closing off public schools for unvaccinated kids.  I don’t see that happening right now because the only people at risk are the unvaccinated. The only way pressure on the Ontario government to do something grows if the healthcare system gets stretched in fighting cases of people who refused to get the MMR shot. That circles us back to the healthcare systems of the United States and Canada we started this week comparing. In the States if you choose not to get your shots - you will bear the cost of that - either through higher premiums or medical costs. It is why Ohio lets motor bikers ride on the highway with no helmet. Your health choices are your right and at your cost. In a universal system, the health choices and consequences of your neighbour are borne by everyone. It is why there is more of a case in Canada for mandating behaviour to reduce the strain of a system with limited resources. It is why I lean a little toward the American system, where there is more of an onus on personal responsibility. The best compromise we have in Canada are the sin taxes on alcohol and tobacco, that are collected to offset the healthcare costs from these vices. So perhaps an unvax tax should be put in place as well.  If you don’t like this plan, or are unhappy with either system,  I have another idea.  But you will have to wait until next week. 

May 8th 

I do find it interesting what the “news” chooses to cover and ignore. The conflict between Pakistan and India has received scant coverage, compared to the colour of smoke coming from St. Peters. I get that the tension over Kashmir has been ongoing for decades, but when India retaliates with air strikes against Pakistan with their  government in Islamabad now vowing for revenge, you wouldn’t think you would need to search for coverage.  I guess it is a sign of progress or wilful blindness that the threat of nuclear war is no longer keenly felt by younger generations.  There are very few people on earth anymore that were around when the United States dropped nuclear bombs in Japan to bring the end to world war two. With each passing year the warning of nuclear holocaust passed through generations has diminished. Younger people are much more concerned with the long term threat of climate change than the immediate flash of nuclear war.   During the 80’s and 90’s nuclear disarmament was the cause du jour. Some progress was made, but we haven’t erased the threat - we’ve just learned to ignore it. 

May 7th 

Well in terms of tangible results or announcements the meeting between Trump and Carney delivered very little. I guess the fact that Carney didn’t get ambushed like Zelensky is a good thing, but it doesn’t sound like going back to the way things were. Trump was rather assertive that he doesn’t want Canadian made cars, steel or aluminium in America.  This is going to hit Canada’s economy very hard, but at least we have as much clarity as can be expected from a Trump administration. 

Carney will now have to shift focus to our response and see if he can actually get digging and fast track the resource development projects he promised during the campaign. That should appease Alberta and take the lid off any separation steam building. 

I must say right now, my biggest concern is the tensions arising between the on-off-on-again conflict between nuclear weapon powers India and Pakistan. Discuss that conflict more tomorrow. 

May 6th 

Mark Carney’s job as PM really begins today with his meeting with Trump in Washington. It will be must-see TV at least for Canadians on how he is received and whether there is a reset in tone from Trump and our relationship with our number one trading partner.  Trumps does seem to revel in yanking our chain so the idea that everything will get back to normal after this get together does feel like wishful thinking.  Even yesterday, he was telling reporters he wasn’t sure why Carney was coming, so get your popcorn as this meeting will probably shape the Canadian news cycle for at least a few days. 

Yesterday ended with an Alberta separation comment. I don’t see it happening, but I do believe the sentiment to leave is louder and in greater numbers to be easily dismissed. This will be the other big test for Carney in seeing if he and his government is in fact a departure from the other guy. I don’t believe most eastern Canadians give Alberta it’s due for the wealth that province shares with others in confederation. Listening to the Albertans I know who live there, it doesn’t sound like they are  going to leave, but they would like a little more respect for paying the bills - especially from Quebec,  a perennial freeloader.  Transfer or equalization payments between provinces are a cornerstone of our nation building to create a level playing field of prosperity.  But I am not sure many younger Canadians are aware of their existence and chronic imbalance they try to counter.  If the Wexit movement does catch hold expect this to be one of the main complaints they want addressed. 

May 5th

Congrats to the Winnipeg Jets for winning game 7 in double OT. Winterpeg doesn’t have much, so good for them.  

But no matter where in Canada hockey is certainly part of this country’s DNA. We have 7 teams in the NHL. 2 of them are named after us and 3 have a maple leaf on their sweaters (we don’t say jersey Americans). 

The other thing that many Canadians point to in defining this country is our healthcare system.  Sad part is that universal healthcare is not all that unique among developed countries not named  the USA. Our system also at the risk of sounding unpatriotic, is not that great. It’s not a slam dunk that it’s even better than the American system. Ours is cheaper, but you do get what you pay for. 

In the States your health insurance for most Americans is a benefit provided by your employers private insurance. As long as you stay employed you’re going to be fine. The problem in their system is what happens when you lose your job and you or one of your kids get sick. The other issue occurs when a condition or disease is discovered while employed. You should be covered under your existing plan, but all bets are off if you change jobs and insurance companies. It’s also risky for sick or injured young Americans who turn 25 and are kicked off their parents' plan before finding stable work like Luigi Mangione. Where the scales tip to favouring the American system over Canada’s is when you hit 65 - when most people will lean heavily on the healthcare system. 

At 65 and older Americans are entitled to heavily subsidized insurance (Medicare) by the federal government and full coverage by the feds and states for low income Americans (MedicAid).  

The Canadian system is great for acute care coverage no matter your employment status or pre existing conditions. But our drug and rehab coverage is quite limited compared to what American seniors will receive. 

So whose system is better - it depends, but now all those Albertans wanting to leave Canada can decide.  

May 2nd

Glad I held off ranting against the Leafs. I wanted to wait and see how they played last night before piling on the perennial criticism they get around this time of year. I also wasn’t able to watch game 5, so I hadn't witnessed the lack of urgency others had seen. 

At the start of the playoffs I thought the Leafs would make it to the third round. Now, I'm not that confident.  The Panthers look like they were sandbagging it in the regular season and the Leafs, while better than previous versions, still have too many stars that are interested in winning, but aren’t committed. Should be a typical Leaf series - meaning they will lose in 7. 

Hopefully, they will prove me wrong like Vlad Jr. did last night in finally hitting a big homer this season. Will see if this gets their anemic offense going. 

The news cycle has certainly slowed in Canada since the election and the threat of a Trump take over subsiding. Another tariff levy against Canadian autoparts companies was lifted as Trump flipped flopped again.  He has been rather quiet lately. I have my doubts that it can last the weekend. 

May 1st

Starting off a new month seems like a good time to change the subject to sports. Something much less consequential to rational people. 

Know that I have some American readers, so if I haven’t bored you with Canadian politics yet, I hope some ranting about the state of Toronto sports doesn’t lose you. Although, I have noticed though that for some reason the US media has been reporting on the results of our election more than I can ever remember. 

In Canada nothing seems to change. The Liberals are always in power, the Blue Jays can’t hit in the spring and the Leafs “stars” always decide to play their worst hockey in deciding games. 

Blue Jays tied their can to Vladdy Jr. for the next 14 years in a move that is not going to age well.  Heck fickle fans who pushed ownership into this bad deal are already having regrets.  To be fair Vlad Jr. is a generational talent - just not when it matters. I have trouble fully lambasting him, since he’s not getting any protection from the guy behind him, who also is a notorious slow starter. The question for the Jays, last night’s comeback explosion notwithstanding, is whether the bats will wake up in time for the team to still be in the playoff hunt. 

I argued at the time that there was a business case for signing Vlad Jr., but not a strong baseball one.  He’s not at the same level of Soto or Ohtani to get those dollars for that length of term.  He’s already a first baseman,  so there is nowhere else to put him except DH as he gets older and puts on more weight as age tends to do.  The speculation was that Rogers wanted this deal more than Shapiro, and so it will be Rogers that has to live with it, once Shapiro is gone.