NFL Picks

My guilty pleasure is wagering  (not for money of course) on football. Feel now that I am at the point where I feel bold enough to share what I have learned over the years.  First off, I only bet (for fun) on NFL football. I don't want to risk betting on a team that got in late from last night's encounter and is mailing it in for meaningless game #43 of a bloated season schedule.  Due to so few games in the NFL, they mean a lot and it usually brings out the best effort in teams. 

I pick point spreads, with the hopes of beating the experts. I have been doing this for over 40 years, but have noticed over the last ten years, the influence of television and legal sport wagering has made things much more difficult to handicap. I don't believe the refs fix games, BUT I do believe games are kept close whenever possible to build and maintain television audiences. I have witnessed some strange outcomes over the years and I will bet that eventually it will become known that the league (refs and select players) and their media partners have managed results to their benefit. By the time this is exposed, people will have become so addicted to sport gambling I am not sure anyone will care. 

To put my picks on the record, I will post them here and keep a record of results.  Forget what the hype tells you, sports gambling is very difficult.  I wouldn't encourage anyone to do it, but I have learned a thing or two from a few professionals I know. First, they don't bet using apps on their phones.  They have their own traditional methods that involve many thousands of dollars. They don't bet all the games and know parlay bets (grouping outcomes) are a sucker bet. Of course a positive winning percentage is the goal, but that's not easy picking spreads. If you won only 55% of the time you would take that result to the bank.  

As for selections, I am a contrarian by nature, so I go against the herd, with occasional emphasis on fading whatever happened in Primetime the following week.  Believe the league likes to keep as many teams and fan bases engaged so will look at playoff implications that will keep the suspense building. If that isn't working, will then look to focus on the QB - it's their league. 

2024 -25 Overall Record:    21 - 23 - 2 

Here are my picks this week: 

Super Bowl

Chiefs -1.5

Conference Finals - gave my heart too much influence over my head 

Commanders +6 -L

Bills +2 - L 

Divisional Round 

Chiefs - 8.5 -W

Commanders +8.5 - W

Eagles - 6.5 - L

Ravens  -1.5 -L

Wildcard Weekend

Chargers -3 - L

Broncos +8.5 -L

Eagles -4.5 - W

Commanders +3 - W

Vikings -2.5 - L 

Week 18

Steelers +2.5 -W

Panthers +7.5 - W

Cowboys + 6.5 - W

Lions -2.5 - W

Week 8 

Bucs + 1.5 - L

Browns +7 - W

Texans -4.5 - L

Chargers -7.5 - W

Commanders +1.5 - W

Week 7 

Giants +7 -L

Falcons -3 - L

Packers -2.5 - L 

Raiders +6.5 -L 

Week 6 - I am regressing back to the mean 😞

Seahawks +3.5 - L

Titans -2.5 - L

Patriots +7 - L

Ravens +7 - T

Panthers +6 - L

Giants +3.5 - L 

Week 5

Not seeing many this week to put on the card: 

Giants +6.5 - W

Steelers -2.5 - L

Week 4

Giants +5.5 - W

Falcons -2 -T

Eagles -1.5 - L

Bears - 2.5 - W

Ravens -2.5 - W

Dolphins -1.5 -L

Week 3

Browns -6.5 - L

Steelers -3 - W

Broncos +6.5 - W

Panthers +6.5 - W

Week 2

Browns +3 - W

Saints +6.5 - W

Vikings +5.5 - W

Titans +3.5 - L

Week 1

Never bet week 1