NFL Picks

My guilty pleasure is wagering on football. Feel now that I am at the point where I feel bold enough to share what I have learned over the years.  First off, I only bet on NFL football. I don't want to risk betting on a team that got in late from last night's encounter and is mailing it in for meaningless game #43 of a bloated season schedule.  

Due to so few games in the NFL, they mean a lot and it usually brings out the best effort in teams. I pick point spreads, unless the spread is minimal and the money line offers better value. Learned parlays are a sucker bet, and that most contests that have any value are still coin flips. So with that in mind, I have had success picking round robins. Rarely, can I run the table, but getting 3 of 4 or 4 of 6 is more realistic.  

I start the year with $100 and bet a minimum of $20 per or 20% of the pot to a maximum of $100.  I will cash out anything over $500.  Some years are great, other years I don't make it to Thanksgiving... Canadian Thanksgiving 😔. Lately, things have been good. The key is to walk away and not deposit any more funds.  If you lose 5 weeks in a row, your read on the league is obviously off, so why throw more money away - you're not winning. One of the drawbacks of gambling on sports is that you end up watching more football, sometimes lousy football. So I will cash out if I get 80% of the max pay out before the game - especially if the game is one I don't want to watch - life is short. I will also cash out if odds the have changed dramatically since I made the wager. 

As for selections, I am a contrarian by nature, so I go against the herd, with occasional emphasis on fading whatever happened in Primetime the following week.  Here are my picks this week: 

Week 4

Giants +5.5

Falcons W

Eagles -1.5

Bears - 2.5

Ravens -2.5

Dolphins -1.5

Week 3

Browns -6.5

Steelers -3

Broncos +6.5

Panthers +6.5

Week 2

Browns +3

Saints +6.5

Vikings +5.5

Titans +3.5

Week 1

Never bet week 1