Crazy Thoughts For Crazy Times

 

I would like to move on from all this 51st State talk, but when Canada’s very sovereignty is being threatened, it can keep you up at night speculating. A couple of crazy hypotheticals have rolled around my head. One in the here and now and one on how this all might play itself out. 

Currently, the response to Trump’s call for an economic annexation of Canada has been as expected. But it should be noted that we did have the option to capitulate and play along. Yes, I know this would be incredibly unpopular in Canada, and I feel like a traitor for even suggesting it, but hear me out in considering an alternative approach.

If Trudeau when he went down to Florida kissed the ring of Trump we could avoid the tariffs altogether. Of course there would be immediate backlash at home, but Trudeau's resigning. Trudeau then could begin the duplicity of agreeing to assimilation, while behind the scenes slow footing the annex process. During the next election, of course this unpopular strategy would lose, but the next leader once in power could change course and again go along with Trump, but then run out the clock on Trump’s hold on America. Once Trump was gone, we would then reassert our independence once again. 

Yes, I know all this is not going to happen. It would require Trudeau to put the country ahead of himself, which is something he’s shown he is incapable of doing. He would also have to take all the heat for bowing to Trump in the short term, but I do believe the former drama should know how to play a role. It would also require all parties to agree to act in cooperation and in good faith for the defence of Canada - which sadly makes this scenario pure fiction. But it would keep the tariff target off Canada's back and avoid significant economic pain during the Trump Presidency. Canadians always like to believe they're smarter than Americans. If our leaders could pull off this plot twist, this would certainly prove it.

Looking forward, it is worth noting that some of Trump’s crazy suggestions, like putting a wall up on the U.S. - Mexico border, sometimes come true. So if we dare consider Canada being annexed by the United States, it might be of some value to explore how something so unthinkable might actually happen. 

Putin and Trump do seem rather chummy and both have imperialist tendencies. Would it then be so out of the question, that Trump would push a deal that gives Russia a good chunk of Ukraine, without putting Ukraine in NATO or even giving Ukraine much in the way of security guarantees. In fact this seems to be the U.S. position. What if part of this deal, was a secret quid pro quo between Putin and Trump that in turn for giving up Ukraine, Putin would then deploy his army north to threaten Canada’s sovereignty in the Arctic. Trump being Trump, would then use this attack on Canada as a way to leverage Canadian concessions to America for any U.S. military aid or action. Faced with the threat or actual Russian invasion, would Canada’s current independent resolve hold firm? 

The other notable unknown in this scenario, would be the response of Canada’s other NATO partners. Would the likes of Britain, Germany and others come to Canada’s defence in such a significant manner to call Putin’s bluff. Would NATO still exist if the alliance’s key military member reneges on its commitment?

The more realistic scenario would see Trump try to divide and conquer Canada's provinces, offering economic incentives for them to leave Canada’s Dominion. What if Alberta, Canada’s sugar daddy, took the bait and left? Could the poor Atlantic provinces keep their heads above water without their transfer payments? The only province I know would never join the States is Quebec. But their allegiance to Canada isn't that strong either.
Again, I agree that much of this post is far - fetched speculation, but remember when you thought all this 51 state talk was a joke. Some still believe all this nonsense from Trump, is just part of his negotiation strategy for improved trade deals. Perhaps. But I do take heed of Barack Obama’s warning to stop underestimating the guy. 

By Gregory Cawsey